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Zhang Wei, Chairman of CoStone Capital: Optimistic About the AI Productivity Revolution Brought by ChatGPT

2023.06.10 浏览次数:

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At the recent Shenzhen Qianhai " The Venture Capital Day Of Shenzhen" forum, Zhang Wei, Chairman of CoStone Capitalexpressed optimism about the AI productivity revolution brought by ChatGPT and the emergence of new application scenarios in industries such as office, education, healthcare, and imaging. Based on it,CoStone Capital will focus on investing in companies that specialize in computing power, storage, data, and large-scale models in the future.

Zhang Wei stated that artificial intelligence has gone through three major stages of development from 2012 to the present.

The first stage, from 2012 to 2016, saw limited applications of artificial intelligence in fields such as facial recognition and license plate recognition, represented by companies like Google, META, Baidu, and Alibaba. Zhang Wei mentioned that during this period, CoStone Capital invested in companies like SenseTime, CloudWalk Technology, and Innovation Works.

The second stage, from 2017 to 2021, witnessed the expansion of AI applications into fields such as internet entertainment, smartphones, smart healthcare, and autonomous driving. In this stage, CoStone Capital invested in companies like 4Paradigm and SmartMore, according to Zhang Wei.

The third stage began in 2022, where AI disruptively revolutionizes productivity, and the birth of ChatGPT4 has the potential to reshape all industries and create new applications, represented by companies like OpenAI.

Regarding ChatGPT, Zhang Wei mentioned that its core lies in algorithms, computing power, and data, which require a mighty infrastructure for artificial intelligence. For instance, OpenAI's technological breakthrough relies on powerful Nvidia GPU chips. "There is a significant gap between China's current GPUs and those of Nvidia and AMD. Additionally, there is a noticeable disparity in storage chip technology compared to foreign companies like Samsung."

Looking ahead, Zhang Wei recommended that China should focus on investing in and supporting infrastructure companies related to algorithms, computing power, data, and more. He specifically emphasized the significance of the "three factors: proactive government, innovative capital, outstanding entrepreneurs" in areas like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai, where the government is aiming to seize the next round of AI industry leadership.

Firstly, the government should continuously upgrade and establish new-generation computing centers to meet the requirements of the new AI industry. At the same time, existing supercomputing centers should be studied to adapt to the needs of the new generation AI industry.

Secondly, the government needs to support the development of local GPU and storage chip companies, covering areas from computing power to storage.

Furthermore, the government should establish data sharing platforms.

Additionally, the government should strongly support the development of innovative capital and utilize market-based approaches to promote industry competition, ultimately selecting outstanding AI entrepreneurs.

According to Zhang Wei, the United States has constructed the Silicon Valley innovation ecosystem, which involves collaboration between companies, universities, national laboratories, independent research labs, platform service providers, public and private clients, multiple institutional entities, startup companies, and investors.

According to Zhang Wei's introduction, the United States has established the Silicon Valley innovation system in the development of the AI industry. This system involves collaborations between companies and universities, national laboratories, independent research labs and universities, platform service providers and public or private clients, multiple institutional entities and various partners, as well as cooperation between large corporations, institutions, startups, and investors.

Drawing on overseas models, Zhang Wei also mentioned that Shenzhen needs to formulate a comprehensive industrial plan by planning production lines and designing system layouts. This entails creating a blueprint to establish an overall industry planning framework. Simultaneously, Shenzhen should focus on talent introduction, identifying and recognizing entrepreneurs, and supporting the development of private enterprises. "More importantly, Shenzhen needs to invest substantial resources to strongly support the development of the AI and chip industries.

几年前,我曾提出一个问题:中国经济繁荣的根基是什么?

我认为是“重商主义(这里借指市场经济)”与“儒家文化”这两个因素的核聚变,只要我们的体制大门开一条小小的缝,中国老百姓与生俱来的聪明、勤奋、奋不顾身,几千年穷怕了的物质主义和实用主义,就能创造一个新天地。

2021年,我见到一个新能源公司的董事长,谈及张维迎所言“直到20世纪70年代,绝大部分中国人的生活水平不比唐宋时期好多少”,他说这是真的,1978年他没有见过电,全家所有家当是一个小木柜。1979年,我的好朋友,一个咨询集团的董事长考上了大学,报到前他勤工俭学,骑六七十里山路卖冰棍,山里的一户人家,用几个鸡蛋和他换了一根,全家人排成一排每个人吮吸一囗。

在改革开放前,这是中国普遍的景象。而我们这一两代人,在改革开放后,怀抱着对美好生活的向往,创造了人类发展史上的奇迹。40多年过去,我们看到,轻舟已过万重山。伟大的中国工业革命,怎么赞扬也不为过!

而另一方面,中国用几十年的时间,走完了发达国家几百年的路,这也就注定了,我们上山的道路,更加的陡峭。同时,中国作为一个有几千年历史的古国,其发展正常就是“孔雀东南飞,五里一徘徊”。作为一个新兴经济体,我们讲究的是实用主义,中国的政策也是因时、因势而变的。

因此,并非一些简单的因素就能够遏制中国的增长,只要不出现战争这样会扰乱经济进程的极端因素,只要中国依然坚定地支持民营经济发展,保护企业家精神,中国经济的前进步伐就是坚定不移的。

如果认同这一点,那么无论是短期的政策、市场变化还是长期的中美对抗,都不会让我们产生太大的焦虑。

具体从我们做企业和做投资来讲,也无需过度悲观。“沉舟侧畔千帆过,病树前头万木春”,在一些行业和企业衰落的同时,也永远有一些行业和企业在崛起。

以半导体产业为例,我们不必纠结于半导体仿佛一年紧缺、一年过剩,因为问题的核心不是这个。问题的核心是第四次工业革命离不开半导体技术,而中美对峙、科技封锁,将进一步迫使中国在所有科技领域谋求自主可控,进一步迫使中国以举国体制解决创新问题。同时,当一项投资吻合科技进步趋势和政策引导的双重影响时,其估值亦将脱离传统财务模型。这些才是中国硬科技投资的重要的底层逻辑。

看待资本市场,我们更不必计较一时的股价波动。回顾历史,在资本市场发生剧烈调整时,那些优质的企业往往也会出现大幅下跌,但不同的是,优秀企业不仅能收复失地,还能再攀高峰。因此,我们继续坚定地布局那些有核心技术、有企业家精神的企业。而从我们的投资经历来看,那些有企业家精神的企业最终都带领我们穿越了周期,并获得了异乎寻常的回报。

莫愁前路无知己,天下谁人不识君!


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