2012.11.20 CoStone Capital 浏览次数:
At the “Venture Investment: Industrial Upgrade Drivers and New Strategic Decisions Summit Forum”, CoStone Capital chairman Zhang Wei said that the venture capital industry was facing a big test and needed a more rational atmosphere.
Zhang Wei: Expecting a Rational Atmosphere for Venture Capital
At the “Venture Investment: Industrial Upgrade Drivers and New Strategic Decisions Summit Forum”, CoStone Capital chairman Zhang Wei said that the venture capital industry was facing a big test and needed a more rational atmosphere.Zhang Wei said frankly that the venture capital industry was once a mysterious industry, and the amplified halo effect may inevitably make investment institutions feel heady. With the popularity and maturity of the industry, more and more people are starting to look at venture capital institutions with rational and questioning eyes.
“After the halo effect fades, we must be alert to the negative factors in the industry that are also multiplied, which may cause harm to the development of this industry.”
Zhang Wei holds that there are three major phenomena in the fiercely competitive primary market:
offering high prices to win projects, which leads to corporate valuation bubbles;
lowering investment standards and ignoring business risks for the purpose of listing;
VCs cannot fight for legitimate rights in negotiations with companies and thus have difficulty in carrying out post-investment management.
As for the current market conditions, Zhang Wei thinks that the downturn in the secondary market is far from being passed on to the primary market. In the long run, however, there may appear inversion between the primary and secondary markets, which will become a severe test for all institutions in the industry.
Zhang Wei believes that the current “winter” of the venture capital industry is both a challenge and an opportunity. Many industries saw obviously declined performance in the first half of this year. In his view, the advantages and disadvantages of enterprises will be more evident under such an environment; and excellent enterprises must have experienced the test of the economic cycle.
“It’s time to build a rational atmosphere.” Zhang Wei said, “The sluggish economic environment is prompting investment institutions to return to rationality and refocus on the growth potential of enterprises.
Zhang Wei argues that, like other industries, it is not easy for China’s venture capital industry to carry out strategic transformation. Successful investment institutions must have been fully prepared and invested substantially in resources, capabilities, and knowledge. “Investment institutions should shift from value judgment to value creation.” While investment institutions can get remarkable returns with good value judgment capability, venture capital and M&A investments also require investment institutions to have the ability to create value and to be more involved in business operations of invested enterprises.
Rewritten by: Yang Yang, Edited by: Du Zhixin, Li Yunzhen
几年前,我曾提出一个问题:中国经济繁荣的根基是什么?
我认为是“重商主义(这里借指市场经济)”与“儒家文化”这两个因素的核聚变,只要我们的体制大门开一条小小的缝,中国老百姓与生俱来的聪明、勤奋、奋不顾身,几千年穷怕了的物质主义和实用主义,就能创造一个新天地。
2021年,我见到一个新能源公司的董事长,谈及张维迎所言“直到20世纪70年代,绝大部分中国人的生活水平不比唐宋时期好多少”,他说这是真的,1978年他没有见过电,全家所有家当是一个小木柜。1979年,我的好朋友,一个咨询集团的董事长考上了大学,报到前他勤工俭学,骑六七十里山路卖冰棍,山里的一户人家,用几个鸡蛋和他换了一根,全家人排成一排每个人吮吸一囗。
在改革开放前,这是中国普遍的景象。而我们这一两代人,在改革开放后,怀抱着对美好生活的向往,创造了人类发展史上的奇迹。40多年过去,我们看到,轻舟已过万重山。伟大的中国工业革命,怎么赞扬也不为过!
而另一方面,中国用几十年的时间,走完了发达国家几百年的路,这也就注定了,我们上山的道路,更加的陡峭。同时,中国作为一个有几千年历史的古国,其发展正常就是“孔雀东南飞,五里一徘徊”。作为一个新兴经济体,我们讲究的是实用主义,中国的政策也是因时、因势而变的。
因此,并非一些简单的因素就能够遏制中国的增长,只要不出现战争这样会扰乱经济进程的极端因素,只要中国依然坚定地支持民营经济发展,保护企业家精神,中国经济的前进步伐就是坚定不移的。
如果认同这一点,那么无论是短期的政策、市场变化还是长期的中美对抗,都不会让我们产生太大的焦虑。
具体从我们做企业和做投资来讲,也无需过度悲观。“沉舟侧畔千帆过,病树前头万木春”,在一些行业和企业衰落的同时,也永远有一些行业和企业在崛起。
以半导体产业为例,我们不必纠结于半导体仿佛一年紧缺、一年过剩,因为问题的核心不是这个。问题的核心是第四次工业革命离不开半导体技术,而中美对峙、科技封锁,将进一步迫使中国在所有科技领域谋求自主可控,进一步迫使中国以举国体制解决创新问题。同时,当一项投资吻合科技进步趋势和政策引导的双重影响时,其估值亦将脱离传统财务模型。这些才是中国硬科技投资的重要的底层逻辑。
看待资本市场,我们更不必计较一时的股价波动。回顾历史,在资本市场发生剧烈调整时,那些优质的企业往往也会出现大幅下跌,但不同的是,优秀企业不仅能收复失地,还能再攀高峰。因此,我们继续坚定地布局那些有核心技术、有企业家精神的企业。而从我们的投资经历来看,那些有企业家精神的企业最终都带领我们穿越了周期,并获得了异乎寻常的回报。
莫愁前路无知己,天下谁人不识君!